At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins endured yet another setback, squandering a three-run advantage to ultimately succumb to the Cleveland Guardians, 4-3. Griffin Jax bore the brunt of the loss, yielding a decisive two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning.
This defeat is indicative of a troubling trend for the Twins, who have now lost 18 of their last 27 games. The once bright prospects for postseason play are beginning to dim, with their lead in the race for the third American League wild-card spot now slimmed to just 1 1/2 games. According to FanGraphs, the Twins' postseason odds have declined from 95.4% on September 5 to 76.4% after this recent skid.
Offensive Struggles and Key Players Missing
A glaring issue for the Twins has been their inability to generate sufficient offense. In 12 of their last 27 contests, they have failed to score more than three runs. Over this stretch, the team's batting average sits at .236, with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. The situation worsens when the bases are empty, as they rank among the bottom four in the league with a .272 average in such scenarios.
Manager Rocco Baldelli didn’t mince words about their recent performances, emphasizing the importance of offensive consistency: “If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together.” He reiterated, “We have to put nine innings together.”
The expected return of Max Kepler could provide a much-needed spark to their lineup. However, key players Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have had limited action this month, going a combined 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer, underlining the challenges the team has faced in maintaining offensive firepower.
Bullpen Woes and Rotation Woes Alike
Initially a strength, the bullpen has faltered of late, posting a 5.47 ERA in the last 27 games—the worst in the league over this period. Their win probability added has plummeted to a league-worst minus-2.75. This contrasts starkly with their performance in the first 123 games, where they held a respectable 3.84 ERA and were tenth in win probability added (plus-3.41).
Exacerbating the bullpen’s struggles is the rotation’s instability. Over these recent ruinous games, the rest of the rotation has logged a grim 6.07 ERA, averaging just 4.38 innings per start. This lack of depth is placing an untenable burden on the bullpen, exacerbating the team’s floundering state. Griffin Jax candidly acknowledged the fatigue affecting the pitching staff: “It’s pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff.”
Crunch Time
The Twins had leads or were tied in the seventh inning or later in seven of their last 18 losses, bringing into sharp focus their inability to close out games. Reflecting the pressing situation, pitcher Pablo López put it succinctly: “Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow.”
In a bid to bolster their ranks, the Twins claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin has posted a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances this season. President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey shared insights on this move: "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."
Race for the Wild Card
Despite their recent struggles, the Twins hold crucial tiebreakers over the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, who currently trail by just two games. The Tigers, in particular, are rapidly gaining momentum, having gone 23-10 in their last 33 games.
As the season wanes, the Twins find themselves at a critical juncture where every game takes on added significance. Baldelli articulated this sentiment: “We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this.” With 17 games played in the last 18 days, the Twins' resilience and ability to bounce back will be rigorously tested as they fight to retain their playoff hopes.