The NBA Rookie of the Year (ROY) award has long been a coveted honor, often signaling the start of a promising career in the league. Typically, the winner of this esteemed award is the most productive rookie scorer, with half of the last 10 winners leading the scoring charts among rookies. This trend suggests that putting up points is a crucial metric for earning the title. Still, not every year brings forth a rookie who stands head and shoulders above the rest in scoring or overall impact.
The Draft and Its Implications
Historically, being a top draft pick significantly boosts a rookie's chances of winning the ROY. In fact, half of the past 16 recipients have been No. 1 overall picks. Moreover, it's rare for someone outside the top five picks to secure the award. Notable exceptions include players like Damian Lillard and Malcolm Brogdon, who defied the odds to emerge victorious despite not being top-five selections. These examples underline the unpredictability of the draft and the potential for surprises beyond the top picks.
Big Men and Their Scarcity
Since 2003, only four big men have captured the Rookie of the Year award: Emeka Okafor, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, and the latest addition, Victor Wembanyama. This stat highlights the league's guard and forward-heavy trend, as well as the exceptional talent required for a center or power forward to stand out among rookies. In a guard-driven league, big men face a steeper climb to claim the ROY honor.
An Unpromising Draft Class
The 2024 draft class faces scrutiny, with many analysts dubbing it one of the least promising in NBA history. The top two picks are considered projects, and notably, do not play the guard position, further complicating the ROY race for this cohort. Reed Sheppard, the highest-picked guard in the 2024 class, has caught attention, though he faces fierce competition in Houston’s crowded backcourt. “They badly need his shooting,” emphasises the critical role Sheppard could play for his team, provided he earns sufficient playing time.
Elsewhere, Stephon Castle’s 26.7% shooting on threes at UConn and Ron Holland’s 23.9% from beyond the arc in the G-League pose serious concerns about their offensive efficiency. Additionally, Alex Sarr’s abysmal 19.1% shooting from the floor at Summer League further dampens expectations for the 2024 rookies. These stats depict a challenging landscape for the incoming rookies, where none have emerged as standout contenders based on their performance metrics.
Potential Bright Spots
Despite the overall grim outlook, there are a few potential bright spots. Zach Edey appears to have a relatively clear path to starting for the Memphis Grizzlies. Edey is expected to model his game on Jonas Valanciunas, one of the more reliable and solid centers in the league. This setup could provide Edey with the opportunity to rack up the stats needed to make a strong ROY case.
In Minnesota, the Timberwolves have drafted Rob Dillingham as a future replacement for veteran guard Mike Conley. While this planning bodes well for Dillingham’s future, it’s uncertain how much impact he will have in his rookie year. Over in Portland, Donovan Clingan is seemingly entrenched behind Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III, making his path to significant minutes and thus his ROY chances quite slim.
The Long Shots
Several rookies face uphill battles due to established competition at their respective positions. Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels are challenging Zaccharie Risacher for forward spots on Trae Young’s team. Similarly, Isaiah Collier finds himself blocked by Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson, while Dalton Knecht contends with Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell for playing time on the Lakers. The reality for these rookies is that substantial playing time—and thus a serious shot at the ROY—remains elusive.
Last season, Brandin Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez Jr. received votes outside of the lottery, but neither seriously contended for the top rookie honor. This highlights the fierce competition and the high bar set for winning ROY. This year, playing for Washington “kills Sarr’s candidacy because he has nobody to set him up,” illustrating the impact of team dynamics on individual rookie performances.
In sum, the race for the NBA Rookie of the Year is a complex interplay of draft positioning, immediate impact potential, team fit, and individual performance. While history provides some guidelines—top draft picks and scoring acumen—we remain poised to see who will rise from the 2024 class, against all odds, to claim the coveted title.