The Denver Nuggets, crowned as the 2022/23 NBA champions, are set to face off against the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday night at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The game, which is scheduled to start at 7:00 p.m. ET, sees Denver entering as the favorites by a 5-point margin.
Nuggets' Stance in the Western Conference
Currently holding a 30-14 record, the Nuggets stand third in the Western Conference. Their performance has been strong throughout the season, and they carry momentum having won four of their last five games. Additionally, the team is seeking to extend their road winning streak with what could be their third consecutive victory away from home. Denver's average margin of victory sitting at five points aligns with the spread for the upcoming game, indicating that they might cover the spread once again.
Pacers' Eastern Conference Position
The Pacers, with a 24-19 record, find themselves seventh in the Eastern Conference. Despite a recent slump that resulted in four losses out of their last five games, Indiana has shown resilience on their home court, winning five of their last six at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. However, they have struggled against Denver historically, having not secured a win against the Nuggets since 2020, including losing their last four home encounters.
Player Updates and Team Stats
On the personnel front, Tyrese Haliburton's status remains uncertain due to a hamstring issue, and both Isaiah Jackson and Andrew Nembhard are doubtful for the Pacers. For Denver, Vlatko Cancar, Collin Gillespie, Braxton Key, and Julian Strawther will be sidelined, while Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon are listed as probable.
In their previous matchup earlier this month, the Nuggets emerged victorious with a 117-109 win. Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Porter each tallied 25 points, with Aaron Gordon adding another 20 points to the effort. Haliburton did not play in that game, and his potential absence could again be a significant factor.
ATS Records and Betting Odds
Despite being the reigning champions, Denver's Against The Spread (ATS) record this season stands at 19-24-1, covering only 44.2% of their games. This percentage dips even further to 35.7% following a win. On the road, their ATS record drops to 8-15-0. Conversely, as away favorites, the Nuggets have covered the spread one-third of the time.
Meanwhile, the Pacers have performed better against the spread, boasting a 24-18-2 record for the 2023/24 season. They cover 60% of their games at home and have an impressive 5-2 record as home underdogs. These statistics suggest that Indiana could defy the odds and cover the spread, despite being the underdog in this matchup.
Individual Performances
Jokic continues to be a dominant force, ranking 13th in points per game with 26.1 and placing fourth in the league for rebounds and assists. His versatility and impact on the game make him a tough assignment for any team. Murray also contributes significantly, averaging 20.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 6.5 assists. For Indiana, Haliburton leads in points per game and assists, and the addition of Pascal Siakam from the Toronto Raptors adds more depth to their roster. Siakam scored 21 points in his debut against the Portland Trail Blazers, showcasing his ability to make an immediate impact.
Betting Lines and Predictions
Bet Rivers has priced the Nuggets at -175 on the moneyline, reflecting their status as favorites. The total for the game is set at O/U 239, indicating expectations of a high-scoring affair. With the Nuggets' propensity to score from various positions on the floor, as evidenced by their previous clash with the Pacers, they appear poised to potentially cover the spread, despite some concerns about their ATS performance this season.
An analyst's perspective suggests, "Denver have been poor ATS this season, but their average 5-point margin of victory means they could cover here." The same sentiment extends to the individual performances where it's noted, "Jokic will be tough to stop, whilst Murray will also need to be covered." The Nuggets' ability to distribute scoring among players like Porter and Gordon further bolsters their chances. As such, the line is set with Denver Nuggets at -5 (-105 with Bet Rivers).
As these two teams prepare to battle it out, all eyes will be on whether the Nuggets