A Grim Statistical History
Historically, teams that manage to go up 3-0 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final tend to seal their championship fate swiftly. Out of 28 such series, 27 have concluded in favor of the team with the dominant lead. The lone exception dates back to 1942, when the Toronto Maple Leafs spectacularly rallied to defeat the Detroit Red Wings. Even more daunting for the challengers, 20 of these 28 series ended in sweeps.
The Panthers are looking to bring out the brooms for a Stanley Cup Final sweep for the first time since the Red Wings swept the Washington Capitals in 1998. While the Oilers aspire to extend the series with a Game 4 win, history shows that 25 out of those 28 series wrapped up in no more than five games. Despite the daunting odds, the Oilers remain resilient in their belief.
Oilers' Current Struggles
The Oilers have found themselves struggling significantly against the Panthers this season, standing at 0-5-0. Thursday’s Game 3 offered a glimmer of hope as Edmonton managed to rally in the third period, with gritty goals from Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod cutting the Panthers' lead to 4-3. However, the game was ultimately defined by a critical stretch where the Oilers crumbled.
Entering the third period down 4-1 on home ice, in a must-win game, against a Panthers team with a plus-15 goal differential in the final period throughout the playoffs, was a dire situation. The unraveling occurred during a disastrous 6:19 stretch in the second period, where Florida netted three goals. Following a Warren Foegele breakaway goal that tied the game at 1-1, a turnover by Stuart Skinner led to an Eetu Luostarinen to Vladimir Tarasenko combination that deflated the crowd at 9:12.
The situation worsened with Matthew Tkachuk’s forechecking forcing a Darnell Nurse turnover, which Sam Bennett capitalized on at 13:57 for his seventh goal of the playoffs. Aleksander Barkov sealed the period's scoring at 15:31, converting a 2-on-1 opportunity that began deep in Edmonton's attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
For the Oilers, the mistakes continued to pile up, while the goals from their star players did not. Among those scoring for Edmonton are Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm. However, top playoff scorers Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard have not found the back of the net.
These five players also lead the Oilers' power play, which has been rendered ineffective by the Panthers' penalty kill that stands at a perfect 10-for-10 in this series. Edmonton's power play had been highly efficient, operating at over 37% in the postseason before this series.
Though McDavid has made his presence felt with assists on three of the Oilers' four goals in the series, the other stars have yet to score a point in the Stanley Cup Final. McDavid is on pace to become the second player since 1967-68 to have a point on at least half of his team's goals in the postseason, a feat last achieved by Wayne Gretzky for the Oilers in 1988.
Taking Responsibility
"Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well and just can't seem to get anything going. So yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better," Draisaitl expressed candidly.
He continued, "We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of."
Edmonton’s goaltender, Stuart Skinner, remains optimistic despite the circumstances. "It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil," Skinner stated.
Oilers’ coach Kris Knoblauch voiced his confidence in the team's capability. "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed and we're just saying, 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room."
Knoblauch added, "There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There's absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing."
Skinner admitted that the team allowed Florida to seize the momentum. "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen."
As Draisaitl summarized the steep challenge ahead, "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it's hard to come back. It's a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."